Three sims. Your call.

Different approaches. One place to compare.

Find each sim’s strengths →

The slate’s calls

See where the models agree. And where they don’t.

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NBA props. Three perspectives.About

THE MODELS, EXPLAINED

How the sims work.

Compare three approaches to the same NBA slate. Choose a sim to see its picks, then open a player to explore the outcomes and recent games.

Original is our benchmark. Box-score focuses on production and projected minutes. Ratings focuses on player skills and projected minutes.

Confidence groups calls into High, Medium, and Low. Picks starts with High + Medium; use the filter to include Low. These are model ratings, not guarantees. Calls held for review stay off the Picks page.

Sim hit rate is the share of trials that land on the model’s side of the line. It is not a calibrated real-world win probability. Compare it with the player’s minutes, recent games, and the price offered by your bookmaker.

Odds show the bookmaker and capture time. Prices can change. L10 tests the displayed line against the player’s last ten available appearances.

Leaps look beyond the usual line. The target is the minimum stat total needed for a Leap. P90 shows a result reached or exceeded in about one in ten simulations. Averaging the sims helps sort the list; it does not create a combined probability.

Past nights show actual stats and grades at the original lines. Older imported slates and any after-tipoff analysis are labeled; they are not verified pregame performance records.

LEAP RESEARCH